We dive deep into our sectors. Our research drives our insights and thesis-driven approach.

As we come to the end of 2025, the Equal team has been having some spirited conversations about what might be ahead in 2026. From AI eating insurance, robotaxi wars, and the lure to advertisers of 6 billion eyeballs tuning in for the World Cup, we’re sharing 26 predictions across Equal’s core sectors of commerce, supply chain, insurance, and climate, and the broader market for 2026!

Search once began with a keyword; this year, it starts with a question. And instead of ten blue links, shoppers will see a generative answer. A single summary that decides who gets seen, who gets discovered, and who disappears entirely.

Alternative capital in reinsurance reached $121B in the year ended June 2025, a record high, and roughly 60% higher compared to a decade earlier. Reinsurance industry ROE was north of 14% last year (and higher in 2023), and for institutional investors, reinsurance can provide attractive, uncorrelated returns. Today, non-traditional capital (i.e., from outside the reinsurance industry) constitutes roughly 15% of total reinsurance capital.

I’ve long been a HUGE fan of Geoffrey Moore’s book “Crossing the Chasm”. That said, as we work with more and more AI companies, we are witnessing a fundamental breakdown in the customer behavior that Geoffrey observes and reports on.

Podcasts can be an incredible medium for uncovering insight about the world. Every week, hundreds of investors, founders, and operators across industries share their first-hand accounts of what they are seeing across markets, business models, and the world around them. The challenge with the format is often not a lack of information, but the noise, volume, and inaccessibility. Even within a single niche, keeping up with the best conversations is now nearly impossible given the ballooning number of podcasts and the time it takes to listen.